Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 1.016888e-04 0.000120 0.000140 0.000163 0.000187 0.000213 0.000243
2024-10-13 7.572651e-05 0.000100 0.000127 0.000160 0.000197 0.000238 0.000287
2024-10-20 6.152812e-05 0.000088 0.000119 0.000157 0.000203 0.000254 0.000316
2024-10-27 5.251490e-05 0.000081 0.000116 0.000161 0.000216 0.000279 0.000356
2024-11-03 4.266928e-05 0.000071 0.000108 0.000157 0.000217 0.000288 0.000377
2024-11-10 3.575092e-05 0.000065 0.000104 0.000157 0.000224 0.000304 0.000406
2024-11-17 2.938954e-05 0.000058 0.000098 0.000153 0.000226 0.000313 0.000425
2024-11-24 2.589565e-05 0.000055 0.000097 0.000157 0.000236 0.000333 0.000458
2024-12-01 2.221041e-05 0.000051 0.000094 0.000157 0.000241 0.000347 0.000483
2024-12-08 1.753872e-05 0.000045 0.000087 0.000152 0.000240 0.000351 0.000498
2024-12-15 1.478782e-05 0.000041 0.000085 0.000151 0.000244 0.000363 0.000520
2024-12-22 1.218673e-05 0.000038 0.000081 0.000150 0.000247 0.000373 0.000541
2024-12-29 1.048564e-05 0.000036 0.000081 0.000153 0.000258 0.000393 0.000576
2025-01-05 8.267138e-06 0.000032 0.000077 0.000152 0.000262 0.000406 0.000602
2025-01-12 6.097816e-06 0.000028 0.000073 0.000149 0.000262 0.000413 0.000619
2025-01-19 5.374889e-06 0.000028 0.000074 0.000154 0.000274 0.000436 0.000659
2025-01-26 3.670856e-06 0.000024 0.000068 0.000148 0.000271 0.000439 0.000672
2025-02-02 2.830677e-06 0.000022 0.000066 0.000149 0.000277 0.000454 0.000700
2025-02-09 1.860708e-06 0.000019 0.000062 0.000145 0.000276 0.000459 0.000715
2025-02-16 1.527701e-06 0.000018 0.000063 0.000149 0.000287 0.000479 0.000751
2025-02-23 1.066161e-06 0.000017 0.000061 0.000149 0.000291 0.000491 0.000776
2025-03-02 5.700457e-07 0.000014 0.000057 0.000144 0.000288 0.000494 0.000788
2025-03-09 3.333756e-07 0.000013 0.000055 0.000143 0.000292 0.000505 0.000811